East
1. Florida
There
are a number of factors that go into my decision of selecting the hated Florida
Gators to win the east. To be clear, the fandom in me hates the Gators and it
is with a heavy heart that I am selecting them to win the east. I would
consider myself a Georgia-supporter, and many believe that this could be the
strongest Georgia team in the Mark Richt era, but there are issues in Athens.
Most experts believe that South Carolina is not only the best in the East, but
they are sure-fire competitors to win the SEC, which would be the first for
Steve Spurrier at South Carolina. But neither the Dawgs, the Cocks of Game, nor
a surprise team like Missouri of last year will take the east from the Gators
this year.
So
what is it I like about the Gators? Defense for one. The Gators not only have
the best defense in the east, nor the best defense in the SEC (which usually
worthy enough) but the best defense in all of college football. Florida returns
seven starters to their defense. Consider this; Since 2008, whenever the Gators
have returned 7 or more players to the defense, that unit has held opponents to
average of 15 points a game or lower!. Florida recruits defense very well, and
when their players stay, the veteran defenses are stout to say the least.
The schedule is another positive
for the Gators as they get South Carolina, LSU at home, Georgia at the neutral
Jacksonville site, and do not draw Auburn or either of the Mississippi schools
from the west. Their one true road test will be at Alabama on September 20th,
but even that could prove to be a blessing, getting the Tide early on in the
schedule with a new quarterback.
Speaking of quarterback the Gators
do need Jeff Driskel to be healthy, something he hasn’t quite mastered yet, but
if he is and new offensive coordinator Kurt Roper (coached at Duke last season)
can bring those new wrinkles, the offense could be reminiscent of the Urban
Meyer/championship years.
Spurrier and Saban said it throughout
the SEC Media Days, the media has been routinely wrong in selecting the SEC
winner (18 out of the last 20 seasons). Too many people are sleeping on the
Gators and their contention for the SEC. It’s Gator Season!
2. Georgia
Georgia
probably had the best signing of any team in College Football this
past-offseason. What makes it so unique is that it was not a player nor a head
coach. Instead Georgia may have bought the road-map to the National
Championship by hiring defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt. Pruitt learned
under the mastermind Nick Saban at Alabama, then went to Florida State in 2013
and in just one season turned the Seminoles into one of, if not the scariest
defense in all college football. Pruitt could be the ultimate X-factor for the
Dawgs this season.
Consider
the four losses Georgia had a year ago. In each one of the losses Georgia
surrendered an average of 38 points a game. If that’s not enough when you
consider Georgia’s 15 losses since 2010, the defense has surrendered an average
of 35 ppg in those losses. When Georgia loses its typically a shootout (in all
of 9 f those games did Georgia not score 28 or more points) and the defense had
not lived up to the hype. If Pruitt is able to do his magic, not only will
opponents be held to under those 35 ppg, but Pruitt could prove to be the next
head coaching prospect in college football.
However
Georgia comes up short this season because of the questions on the offensive
side of the football. Aaron Murry was an outstanding college quarterback, and
senior Hutson Mason has big shoes to fill. Mason does have the support of an
outstanding running game with Todd Gurley back and fully healthy with Keith
Marshall behind him. However Georgia only has two starters returning to the
offensive line, that last year gave up 22 sacks a year ago (expect that number
to go up with a less athletic Mason). Georgia may be a year away from taking
back the East, but still a very good team. But could Mark Richt be on the hot
seat again?
3. South Carolina
All
the talk during the SEC Media Days was about two individuals, two of the most
successful college coaches since Bear Bryant, Nick Saban and Steve Spurrier.
Both appeared to take jabs at one another with Spurrier supposedly taking a
shot at Saban by giving what seemed to be a back-handed comment about Saban’s
“recruiting prowess” and Saban countering by talking about his work on the
field, winning two SEC titles whereas Spurrier has yet to win one at South
Carolina. It appears that with the rosters both teams have, and the coaching
legends that are Nick Saban and Steve Spurrier all roads this year would lead
to a matchup in Atlanta, in the SEC Championship game.
But
that will not happen this year. Aside from the media’s expectations always
fizzling out year after year, the fact remains that South Carolina lost too
much over the offseason. Gone is the likes of Jadeveon Clowney, Connor Shaw,
and Bruce Ellington. Out of the three, Jadeveon Clowney was probably the most
unproductive out of the three having amassed only 40 tackles and 3 sacks last
season (not bad for the first overall pick in the draft). While many point to
the fact that quarterback incumbent Dylan Thompson has plenty of experience,
one thing that is overlooked in Connor Shaw was his dual threat ability (2nd
on the team in rushing a season ago). When the play breaks down Thompson will
not be able to improvise the way Shaw did.
The
schedule is a positive attribute for the Game Cocks this season since they do
not draw Alabama nor LSU, however once again South Carolina will be tested with
the opener against Texas A&M, a team everybody appears to be sleeping on,
and will have to make tough road trips to Auburn and Florida.
While
Spurrier and the media continue to fantasize about the potential in South
Carolina, the actual will prove to be too much to overcome.
4. Tennessee
I
believe Tennessee has the opportunity to be the most improved team in all of
the SEC, and still finish in 4th place in the East. While that may seem like an oxymoron
Tennessee will be more pleasing to the eye than they have in recent memory. For
starters, Butch Jones has recruited incredibly well as the Vols continue to
nail top skill position prospects year after year during Jones’s tenure. Another thing that works in Tennessee’s
favor is the fact that quarterback Justin Worley returns for his senior season
and looks to take another step forward from last season when he split time with
Joshua Dobbs. This year the job should be all Worley’s and his experience
should help develop some of the most explosive youngsters in college football.
What
works against Tennessee is the schedule for one. Trips to Georgia, Ole Miss,
and South Carolina is brutal enough but a home matchup against Alabama makes it
even tougher for the young Vols, and I emphasize the word young. Tennessee does
not return a single starter to the offensive and defensive lines (only 1 senior
on both units).
While
nobody expects the glory years under Phil Fullmer (or General Neyland for that
matter) to return in 2014, there a lot of positives to look forward to. If
Butch Jones can play the role of “upset” in one or two game this season, it is
not out of the realm of possibility to see Tennessee make it to a bowl game…and
that would be a major accomplishment.
5. Missouri
While
all the talk was about Auburn playing the role of Cinderella a season ago,
Missouri did an excellent job just a year ago playing Cinderella’s understudy.
Missouri came out of no where to win 12 games and win the SEC East before
losing to Auburn in a high scoring affair in the SEC title game. Gary Pinkel’s
funky spread offense did a number to SEC defenses last season, which nearly
allowed Missouri to win the conference, in a unprecedented fashion. Missouri
was a great story that wasn’t told enough last season. While the SEC remains
the toughest conference in all colligate athletics (R.I.P Big East basketball),
every team stands a chance if they have the right personnel and system in
place.
While
Missouri may have the right system in place, the personnel will not be there
for Missouri the way it was last season. While Missouri’s defense was nothing
to brag about, it was a steady unit that did not cost Missouri many games last
season, there are only 4 returning starters to that unit. On the other side of
the ball, Marty Mauk steps in for James Franklin at quarterback and Mauk played
very well in Franklin’s absence a year agao throwing for 11 TDs-2 ints in three
games. However the absence of Dorial Green-Beckham, the once praised standout
in high school, in what should have been his break out season, hurts the Tigers
as they receiver they return to the starting unit had only 26 catches last
season.
Missouri
will play well in many games, but will have a tough time repeating last year’s
Disney’s performance. Disney sequals suck anyway.
6. Vanderbilt
When
head coach James Franklin left for Penn State, the hopes of the Commodores went
with it. After leading Vanderbilt to back to back 9 win seasons, Franklin, and
his dynamic seniors, led by Jordan Mathews, departed for better things (and
graduation) and I’m afraid left Vanderbilt right back to where they were prior
to the Franklin years.
Vanderbilt
does return their talented running back, Jerron Seymour and 4/5 of the
offensive line which could provide Vanderbilt a potent enough attack and take
the pressure off the new quarterback and receivers. While 9 wins may be
unattainable this season, 5-6 wins may not be out of the question.
7, Kentucky
Kentucky does a great job trying to
be a football school when it is not. Coach Mark “Don’t Call Me Bob” Stoops has
down a wonderful job recruiting in the past two seasons, it has yet to amount
to much success or hype for that matter about the Wildcats. Kentucky has
another incredibly young and inexperienced team (returns 11 starters) it will
be feast or famine for the underclassmen to succeed. And in the SEC that is not
a good formula for success.
West
1. Alabama
Alabama
just continues to reload and replenish year after year to make them viable
contenders for the National Championship and this year will be no different.
Once Greg McElroy graduated from Alabama, and his replacement, little unknown
AJ McCarron took over and there was a great unknown about the true freshman.
But that year McCarron led Alabama to a 14-0 record and a National Championship
victory. This year the state of Alabama is in “Flux” with new quarterback Jacob
Coker takes over. The transfer from Florida State has more athletic ability and
arm strength than both McCarron and McElroy. But what makes Coker such a
dangerous addition to this Crimson Tide team, is not what makes him different
than his predecessors, but what they share.
The
most glaring similarity is that Coker takes over with an experienced, and
explosive offense. McCarron had Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson, Coker will
rely on speedster TJ Yeldon, and explosive wide-out Amari Cooper. Alabama has
only 10 returning starters, but they have them in all the right positions, and
Alabama is never short on talent with their ability to recruit (in case you
haven’t heard Spurrier talk about it, Alabama is very good at recruiting).
The
schedule is also vary favorable for Alabama, as most of the SEC West is either
rebuilding (i.e. Texas A&M, LSU, Arkansas), un-proven/inconsistent (The
Mississippi Schools) Alabama’s toughest test may not come until the last game
of the season against Auburn (home). They do draw Florida from the east, but
that is also a home game, and they do not draw either Georgia or South
Carolina. Barring any major injuries, anything less but an undefeated season in
Tuscaloosa would be a disappointment. But when is that not the case?
2. Mississippi State
Now
here is where I get a little crazy.
But I do believe this is the deepest SEC West we have seen in years and
it is all due to the upgrades in coaching and recruiting over the past few
years. And there is no coach outside the elite coaches in the SEC (Saban,
Spurrier, Myles) that has done more to build their program, than Dan Mullen,
and factor in the fact he is doing that in Starkville, Mississippi is nothing
short but special. The Bulldogs return 12 starters, including duel threat Dak
Prescott who continues to grow in Mullen’s system. Each year Mississippi State
does nothing extraordinary, which why I believe too many people over look them
this year. Last year they gave up only 23 points a game while scoring 28. They
don’t have the offensive explosion that a Texas A&M or Ole Miss will have,
nor do they have the defense that is as imposing as an LSU, Alabama, or
Florida. But they continue to finish right there in the middle of the pack,
year in and year out. And with the changes that are happening below Alabama,
this will be Miss. State’s time to strike.
They
won’t contend for the SEC West title (I’m predicting 9 wins gets the job down
for second place) they will be in almost every game (have to travel to both LSU
and Alabama, but do not have to play South Carolina, Florida, or Georgia). Slow
and steady wins the race, and while it won’t win the Bulldogs a title, they
will finally get the recognition they deserve.
3. Texas A&M
It
seems everyone is predicting a titanic end to the Texas A&M 2014-15’ season
before it even begins. They certainly have a lot to overcome with the loss of
Johnny Manziel and trying to improve a defense that gave up 32 points a game a
season ago. But there is a lot going in A&M’s favor where they may sneak up
on a lot of people this season.
For
starters, the starters! The Aggies have 15 starters returning, and nine of them
return on defense. Now while that defense was all kinds of bad a year ago, by
being able to return so many starters, the learning curve should allow A&M
to certainly improve upon last years numbers, and in a big way. Texas A&M
had a great recruiting class two years ago, which was focused on defense, like
linebackers Darian Claborne, Jordan Mastrogiovanni, and defensive tackle Isiah
Golden should all take major steps forward. A&M continued to add talent
this past offseason by brining in defensive end Myles Garrett to a pass rush
that was luck-luster to say the least. But in 2014, the strength of the defense
will be the depth of pass rushers that could alter many games for the Aggies
and take the pressure off a secondary that does have great ability to make
plays and turn the ball over.
But
the biggest question will be how will Kyle Allen fill in for Johnny Manziel?
While Manziel certainly took games over with his game breaking ability (Mike
Evans was pretty good too) the offense flowed through Manziel. With Kyle Allen,
head coach Kevin Sumlin will be able to bring in a more balanced attack with
the true passer Allen and the electric legs of Tra Carson and Tre Williams.
While the Aggie offense may not slow down in terms of pace, they should be able
to control the ball and grind down teams, as oppose to making quick, big plays,
and forcing the defense back on the field.
It
will be a great formula for Texas A&M team in transition in the
post-Manziel era. A more controlled offense with a vastly improved defense will
cause A&M to sneak up and possibly contend for the SEC West. If the
schedule was more favorable I would have considered having A&M right behind
Alabama in my predictions, but trips to South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn and
Mississippi State may be too daunting. But A&M will win some games that
they are not expected to, and 8-9 wins should be expected for this bunch.
4. Auburn
I
was a huge fan of Gus Malzahn’s group a season ago. They were most certainly
the most entertaining team a season ago. If you wanted to watch a compelling
game that came down to the wire, chances are if you turned on an Auburn game,
you were not disappointed. After Auburn nearly defeated Florida State in the
national championship, they went on and had a phenomenal recruiting class and all
signs point to Auburn sustaining the glory they had a year ago.
But
when you dissect the season had a season ago, and what they lost going into
this season, the signs show something different. For starters, three of the
wins in SEC play could have easily, and most likely, should have been losses
for the Tigers (WARNING: NITPIKING will be taking place). The first of those
games came in October when Auburn defeated Mississippi State. Closely look at the broken down plays
that led to 10 points for the Auburn Tigers. There is the fumble-TD throw at
:43 and then the Marshall throw at 2:00:
Then
there was the debacle at the end of the Texas A&M game, when Johnny Manziel
kept getting sacked (About the last 45 seconds of the video).
Then there is of course this
against Georgia:
And
of course this against Alabama:
I
am not trying to say that Auburn did not deserve to win those games, breaks and
luck is apart of it. Some teams are fortunate and some teams are not. But its
very hard to duplicate chance. Teams do not and cannot rely upon fate year in
and year out and compete, especially in the SEC. The only way Auburn can match
what they did a year ago is by getting significantly better. And unfortunately
for Auburn, I do not believe they have done so.
The
loss of Tre Mason and Dee Ford cannot be underestimated. Mason was the
workhorse for that offense, and everything ran through him, almost literally.
Mason ran the ball a staggering 317 times a year ago. That of course allowed
quarterback Nick Marshall to use the read option effectively (Marshall was
second on the team with rushes with 172) and the play action (14 TDs to 6
INTs). Now Auburn has raved about their running backs this year with the likes
of Artis-Payne, and Corey Grant, but are either one of those guys going to be
Tre Mason? Its a lot to assume that the two of them together can equal Tre
Mason. The loss of Dee Ford is also problematic (10.5 sacks a year ago, second
was Carl Lawson with 4, third was Gabe Wright with 3) and replacing him became
even harder when Carl Lawson went down with a season ending injury. Without a
significant pass rush, the Auburn defense will truly be exposed.
There
is a lot working against the Tigers this year. In 2014, the slipper won’t fit,
the last rose pedal will fall, and the Huns will take over China and Auburn
will return to the middle of the pack (no love for Mulan? That movie jacks me
up!).
5. Ole Miss
Ole
Miss just continues to be that team that seems to have an abundance of talent
but can’t seem to get the right breaks, or the right mix to make it all come
together. They have playmakers on both sides of the ball like quarterback Bo
Wallace, receiver Laquon Treadwell, and defensive end Robert Nkemdiche who
could all contend in being the best player at their position in the conference.
Ole Miss scored 30 points a game last season, and only gave up 23 points on
defense. Even though they outscored their opponents by a touchdown last season,
they still ended up only 8-4 in the conference. They laid eggs against Alabama
and Missouri last year (outscored by a combined 42-10) and lost some close ones
against Auburn, Texas A&M and Mississippi State (lost by 8 or fewer in each
game). Its hard to figure out the Runnin Rebels
This
year their standout freshman become mature sophomores (Treadwell, LT-Laremy Tunsit,
Nkemdiche, DB Tony Connor), Bo Wallace is in his senior season, and head coach
Hugh Freeze has improved Ole Miss every single year (2 wins 2011, 7 in 12’, 8
in 13’) so it is only logical that Ole Miss takes another step forward. But I
just don’t see it. They had a huge jump in wins in 12’ when they went from 2-7,
and perhaps I expected a similar jump last season (they did return 10 starters
on defense last season and 9 on offense) and it never happened. This year they
return only 9 starters and it will take some time to get the newcomers up to
speed and with a rough October
slate that includes games against Alabama, @Texas A&M, and @LSU.
Ole
Miss will be good, and will be entertaining, but will not be contenders.
6. LSU
This
was very hard for me to put LSU this low in my projected standings. LSU has
reloaded once again and on both sides of the football and I’m really excited to
see the youngster, running back Leonard Fournette. But there are too many
question marks, and even for the games ultimate Riddler, head coach Les Miles,
they will be too much to overcome. I think LSU gets to a bowl game, but I do
not see the fanfare surrounding this year’s team, and the expectations to
compete for the SEC West title. Returning the production of Zach Mettenberger
will be impossible to do despite the athleticism of Brandon Harris or freshman
Anthony Jennings and the receiving corps will truly miss Odell Beckham, Jarvis
Lanrdy, and Jeremy Hill.
There
is talent there in Baton Rouge, but this team is a year away from having it all
come together. Much like the way critics of Texas A&M are commenting on the
Aggies rebuilding, the Tigers are disguised as a contender who are truly
rebuilding.
7. Arkansas
I
love what Brett Bielema is doing in Arkansas. I believe he can, and will turn
it around in Arkansas, its just a matter of when that will happen. They are
very talented on offense with juniors Brandon Allen and Jonathon Williams. But
it is hard to grow in the SEC West, if Arkansas can score 2-3 wins in the
conference that would be a major improvement.
Games To Watch
1) Alabama vs. Auburn
While I am not a huge fan of the prospects of Auburn's season, just based on the way last year's game ended, this game is a must see. Despite the fact that if you watch the game you will have to watch the replay of that play countless times and endure hours of interviews from all different people about the 'field goal kick return td' from not only the players, the coaches, but their families, the fans who were there, the fans who were not, their families, the guy who was selling Hot Dogs, and his family.
But once that is all over you can enjoy the most anticipated game with the most intense rivalry college football has to offer. Not a bad way to cap your Thanksgiving Day weekend.
2) South Carolina vs. Georgia
This game will unveil who will be the number one contender in the East and we get to find out early on September 13th. There is no love-loss for either side, as barnes are continually shot back and forth throughout the off seasons. But what should be South Caorlina's most hyped season against Georgia's promising credentials, expect this game to be a thriller.
3) Florida vs. Georgia
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