The Others
Independents
1. Notre Dame
Every
year we are unsure which Notre Dame team we are going to see…are we going to
see the impressive 9+ win team, or the disappointing sub 9 win team? And each
year Notre Dame flirts with that 9 win “Mendoza Line” (’13: 9-4, ’12: 12-1,
11’: 8-5, 10’: 8-5). Last season, a Tommy Rees led Notre Dame seemed to have
overachieved winning nine games, which included impressive wins against
Michigan State, Arizona State, and USC. They nearly defeated Stanford, in
Stanford, lost to Michigan at the “Big House”, lost to Oklahoma, and a real
head scratching loss at Pittsburgh. But then again you have to remember they
lost their key on defense in Manti Teo, Everett Golson was suspended for the
season, and yes, Tommy Rees was starting at quarterback. This year Golson is
back, but they lost their meat on the defensive line (Tuitt and Nix). It seems
every year we sit and wait for it to click in South Bend, and we thought it
might have in 2012 before the romping in the BCS title game to Alabama took
place. Collectively, as a college football nation, whether you root for the
Irish or not, you want Notre Dame to be relative to the national title picture. But this season's schedule is brutal once again, and the month of October will
determine an early fate for the Irish when the host Stanford and North Carolina
before having travel to Tallahassee to play Florida State. Mix the October
slate in with the usual games against Michigan (home), Arizona State (away),
and USC (away). 9 wins would once again be a great accomplishment for Brian
Kelly and his bunch, but unfortunately another reminder that Notre Dame is not
what we want them to be.
Notre Dame Prediction: 8-4
2. BYU
BYU
reminds me of those Alien movies in which the plot is centered around an Alien
race that is in constant search for a new planet to make their home. Their old
home, the Mountain West conference had been destroyed by the Death Star of
College Football (conference realignment) as the Evil Empires (Pac-12, Big 12)
pillaged the conference of the best teams (Utah, TCU). So now BYU wonders
around as an independent hoping to one day join a mega power conference. Its
not exactly how Star Wars worked, but the basic plot elements are there. The
schedule is easier than one year ago and head coach Bronco Mendenhall returns a
very experienced teams lead by quarterback Taysom Hill who lead the Cougars in
not only passing but rushing as well.
BYU has legitimate chance to win 10 games this year.
3. The Military
Academies
Both
Navy, and even Army return solid teams this year despite the winning gap
between the two rivals. Navy is coming off two straight wining seasons (8-5,
9-4) and they will almost certainly make it three in a row with a manageable
schedule a defense that returns seven starters. But the offense will make the
greatest deal of noise, led by Keenan Reynolds and the triple option that has
been nearly perfected by head coach Ken Niumatalolo (future coach of Georgia
Teach???).
Army
on the other hand is coming off of back three straight losing seasons in which
they have not eclipsed three wins in one season. In 2010 they did win 7 games,
and the Black Knights (not the Dark Knights…that’s Batman) hope to return to
another Bowl in 2014. New head coach Jeff Monken will continue the triple
option philosophy so the transition should be seamless. The top five rushers
return in this rushing attack, led by Terry Bagwell and the defense returns its
top two tacklers in the entire secondary. A lot of the players have been
starting since they were sophomores or early, this is a very experienced team
that could steal a few more victories than expected. West Point and Orange
County can hope for a bowl game.
Mountain West
Contenders
Mountain
1. Boise State
The
Blue Grass Broncos are finally faced with the day they must move on from Chris
Peterson. What goes with him is not only the coaching pedigree but almost any
chance of ever joining a major conference (should have stayed in the American
Athletic Conference). So what is left for Boise? Being the best in the Mountain
West is not a terrible distinction. Boise State returns 15 starters, lead by
running back Jay Ajayi who ran for over 1,400 yards and 18 touchdowns. This is
a very senior laden team with only one true road test (@ Nevada, Oct. 4th).
While the luster of Boise State may have left with Peterson, on paper this
looks like the Boise State we have all come to know. Boise State has a
legitimate chance to run the table and finish undefeated.
2. Utah State
Every
year the Utah State Aggies flirt with upsetting a school from a power
conference. Utah State nearly defeated USC last season (14-17), nearly out
muscled Wisconsin in 2012 (14-16), lost a thriller to Auburn in 2011 (38-42),
and a top 10 Oklahoma team in 2010 (24-31). One thing is for sure, if you
suffer from any cardiac conditions, you do not want Utah State to visit your
school, because they will sure play with your blood pressure. Star quarterback
Chuckie Keaton was the quarterback in three of those games but he is coming off
a gruesome knee injury where he tore his ACL and MCL against BYU last season.
If Keaton can return to his all MW status, Utah State could be in that upset
mood again and contend the Mountain West title. One thing is for sure,
Tennessee should have more than their guard up on August 31st, because
the Aggies are coming to town.
West
1. Fresno State
The
loss of Derek Carr should prove to be small, because Fresno State breeds
quarterbacks. But the Bulldogs do lose their top two pass catchers in DeVante
Adams and Isaiah Burse and that could prove to be too much to overcome. One
bright spot is that the defense comes back nearly in tact and should improve
upon its 30 points allowed per game. Fresno State always finds offense, and if
the defense improves Fresno State will contend for another Mountain West title.
2. Nevada
Nevada
has struggled ever since their inception in the Mountain West conference, but
this year they are poised for contention. For starters, the defense returns
with a lot more experience than they had a year ago (top three tacklers
return). Quarterback Cody Fajardo also returns with last year top three
rushers. They have all the right personnel coming back, and a decent schedule
as they do not draw Utah State from the Mountain division, and get back Boise
State and Fresno State at home. The Wolf Pack could be ready to roar.
Mountain West
Championship: Boise State vs. Fresno State
This
would be a very underrated/intriguing conference game that nobody would talk
about compared to the Big 10/Pac-12/ACC/SEC title games. However if this played
out, as it should, it would be intriguing to see how well Boise State can move
from the Chris Peterson Era and can Fresno State move on from the Derek Carr
Era. Both teams are at a crossroads, but will find themselves in contention for
the MW title. While the conference lacks the potential it once had when TCU,
Utah, and BYU were members these two programs could attempt bring some
attention back to the conference. Boise State wins in a shootout.
Winner: Boise State
MAC- Winner: Bowling
Green
“Falcon
Fast” as the offense is now being called at Bowling Green, head coach Dino
Babers is bringing his high octane offense who will take on a completely
different identity than one year ago. Last year the Falcons were led by their
stellar defense which held opponents to under 20 points a game routinely last
season. Unfortunately, Bowling Green lost a lot of talent on that side of the
ball (only 5 starters return to the defense) and they figure to be less
formidable on defense.
But
this new offensive philosophy may be too much for MAC teams to handle as
Barbers proved time and time again throughout his collegiate coaching career to
produce great quarterbacks. He was on the Baylor staff that help create RG3,
and then he moved to Eastern Illinois where turned Jimmy Garoppolo into the
next great Patriot back-up quarterback (i.e Matt Cassell? Ok how about i.e.
Brian Hoyer? i.e. maybe Ryan Mallett? Can I use i.e. Drew Bledsoe??? Tom Brady
was a back-up once). While many attribute the change of philosophy and lack of
defense prowess to contribute to the Falcon decline, the rest of the conference
is going through its own issues. Jordan Lynch is gone at Northern Illinois,
Ohio and Akron are not ready yet and Ball State’s defense couldn’t stop a parked
car.
Bowling
Green is not changing, adopting, or improvising like their other MAC opponents,
they are evolving. “Falcon Fast” will triumph in the MAC.
Conference USA:
Winner: Marshall
“We
Are Marshall!” Despite how terrible that movie was Marshall will finally get
back to their winning ways. Marshall has the formula in place to get to a
second straight Conference USA title game, and this time they will close the
deal. The QB-WR connection of Rakeem Cato and Tommy Shuler will be potent
enough to allow the newcomers to the offense to develop and shine. The defense
was not exactly a powerhouse a season ago, they did give up less than 20 points
a game then they did in 2012. This season the defense returns 7 starters who
should continue that same success.
The
Conference USA has also been pillaged in recent years, with the most recent
member East Carolina, a routine conference contender, now departing for the
American Athletic Conference. So unfortunately for the conference, but
fortunately for Marshall, the Thundering Herd has little competition. Marshall
should run away with the conference.
Future College
Football Re-Alignment Ideas:
1) American Athletic Conference
1) American Athletic Conference
-Adds
Northern Illinois & Marshall
The
Conference will add Navy for football next season which will bring them to
twelve teams, but the additions of Tulane and Tulsa will prove to be flops, as
neither program is impressive or add depth to the conference. In order to add
more geographical sense, adding two teams from the mid-west and mid-Atlantic
area makes sense. Northern Illinois have established a winning way as they are
coming off of four straight double digit win seasons, and will most likely make
it five this season. While Marshall’s had its first double digit win season
last year (for the first time since 2002) Marshall was routinely conference
champions in the former Mid-American conference and has proven to be a
recruiting destination and produce NFL caliber talent (i.e. Randy Moss, Chad
Pennington, Byron Leftwich). With West Virginia struggling in Big 12, Virginia
refusing to gain relevance, and Viginia Tech on a steady decline, Marshall has
the potential to be an attractive destination in the Virginia/West Virginia
area. The American needs to find “prospects” to the conference, just like when
they added Houston and SMU (stayed tuned for those two), and Marshall could be
that prospect.
2) Big 12
-Adds
SMU and Houston
While
Big 12 commissioner, Bob Bowlsby, continues to make outlandish comments about
the conference, it will never be recognized as elite as the SEC or PAC-12 for
that matter. No I am not talking about his comments about “cheating”, which I
am sure none of his Big 12 teams do (cough Oklahoma State cough), I am talking
about not having a Big 12 title game. Apparently Bowlsby is the only human on
earth who thinks not having a conference title game is a good thing. So while
he has no aspirations of adding teams to get that title game, it is still fun
to do it for him.
I
think the Big 12 should also continue to strengthen the conference from within
their geographic region. While June Jones has yet to create the program at SMU
we all thought he would have created by now, like he did in Hawaii, SMU is
still an attractive program because of their location in Dallas, and their
rivalries with Big 12 foes (i.e. Texas). Houston has established a winning
program, and would make natural enemies with the other Texas schools. I know
BYU has made strong indications that they would like to join the conference,
but it makes little sense to add the school that has no pipelines worthwhile
for Big 12 schools to recruit from. But BYU would make sense…
3) PAC-12
-Adds
BYU, Subtracts Colorado
The
PAC-12 can bring back one of the greatest rivalries in all college football
(Utah-BYU) and add some real implications to the game and finally BYU does won’t
have to float in the abyss of being an independent.
Colorado
is probably one of the most tragic programs in the country. My visions of
seeing Kordell Stewart beating Nebraska and being contenders in the Big 12 are
long gone. A generation of kids are growing up in Boulder with no memories of
good days in Colorado. While the money, I’m sure is great being in the Big 12,
the profit margins of 2-12 season year after year can’t be that great. Colorado
needs to start over, perhaps in a new conference and try to reestablish
credibility (how about the Mountain West? Can play their instate rivals every
year, less competition could equal more titles, then maybe spring board that back
to the Big 12.)
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