Sunday, July 27, 2014

The Others: Predicting and Previewing The Non-Power Conferences

The Others

Independents

1. Notre Dame

            Every year we are unsure which Notre Dame team we are going to see…are we going to see the impressive 9+ win team, or the disappointing sub 9 win team? And each year Notre Dame flirts with that 9 win “Mendoza Line” (’13: 9-4, ’12: 12-1, 11’: 8-5, 10’: 8-5). Last season, a Tommy Rees led Notre Dame seemed to have overachieved winning nine games, which included impressive wins against Michigan State, Arizona State, and USC. They nearly defeated Stanford, in Stanford, lost to Michigan at the “Big House”, lost to Oklahoma, and a real head scratching loss at Pittsburgh. But then again you have to remember they lost their key on defense in Manti Teo, Everett Golson was suspended for the season, and yes, Tommy Rees was starting at quarterback. This year Golson is back, but they lost their meat on the defensive line (Tuitt and Nix). It seems every year we sit and wait for it to click in South Bend, and we thought it might have in 2012 before the romping in the BCS title game to Alabama took place. Collectively, as a college football nation, whether you root for the Irish or not, you want Notre Dame to be relative to the national title picture. But this season's schedule is brutal once again, and the month of October will determine an early fate for the Irish when the host Stanford and North Carolina before having travel to Tallahassee to play Florida State. Mix the October slate in with the usual games against Michigan (home), Arizona State (away), and USC (away). 9 wins would once again be a great accomplishment for Brian Kelly and his bunch, but unfortunately another reminder that Notre Dame is not what we want them to be.

Notre Dame Prediction: 8-4


2. BYU

            BYU reminds me of those Alien movies in which the plot is centered around an Alien race that is in constant search for a new planet to make their home. Their old home, the Mountain West conference had been destroyed by the Death Star of College Football (conference realignment) as the Evil Empires (Pac-12, Big 12) pillaged the conference of the best teams (Utah, TCU). So now BYU wonders around as an independent hoping to one day join a mega power conference. Its not exactly how Star Wars worked, but the basic plot elements are there. The schedule is easier than one year ago and head coach Bronco Mendenhall returns a very experienced teams lead by quarterback Taysom Hill who lead the Cougars in not only passing but rushing as well.  BYU has legitimate chance to win 10 games this year.


3. The Military Academies

            Both Navy, and even Army return solid teams this year despite the winning gap between the two rivals. Navy is coming off two straight wining seasons (8-5, 9-4) and they will almost certainly make it three in a row with a manageable schedule a defense that returns seven starters. But the offense will make the greatest deal of noise, led by Keenan Reynolds and the triple option that has been nearly perfected by head coach Ken Niumatalolo (future coach of Georgia Teach???).
            Army on the other hand is coming off of back three straight losing seasons in which they have not eclipsed three wins in one season. In 2010 they did win 7 games, and the Black Knights (not the Dark Knights…that’s Batman) hope to return to another Bowl in 2014. New head coach Jeff Monken will continue the triple option philosophy so the transition should be seamless. The top five rushers return in this rushing attack, led by Terry Bagwell and the defense returns its top two tacklers in the entire secondary. A lot of the players have been starting since they were sophomores or early, this is a very experienced team that could steal a few more victories than expected. West Point and Orange County can hope for a bowl game.



Mountain West Contenders

Mountain

1. Boise State

            The Blue Grass Broncos are finally faced with the day they must move on from Chris Peterson. What goes with him is not only the coaching pedigree but almost any chance of ever joining a major conference (should have stayed in the American Athletic Conference). So what is left for Boise? Being the best in the Mountain West is not a terrible distinction. Boise State returns 15 starters, lead by running back Jay Ajayi who ran for over 1,400 yards and 18 touchdowns. This is a very senior laden team with only one true road test (@ Nevada, Oct. 4th). While the luster of Boise State may have left with Peterson, on paper this looks like the Boise State we have all come to know. Boise State has a legitimate chance to run the table and finish undefeated.


2. Utah State

            Every year the Utah State Aggies flirt with upsetting a school from a power conference. Utah State nearly defeated USC last season (14-17), nearly out muscled Wisconsin in 2012 (14-16), lost a thriller to Auburn in 2011 (38-42), and a top 10 Oklahoma team in 2010 (24-31). One thing is for sure, if you suffer from any cardiac conditions, you do not want Utah State to visit your school, because they will sure play with your blood pressure. Star quarterback Chuckie Keaton was the quarterback in three of those games but he is coming off a gruesome knee injury where he tore his ACL and MCL against BYU last season. If Keaton can return to his all MW status, Utah State could be in that upset mood again and contend the Mountain West title. One thing is for sure, Tennessee should have more than their guard up on August 31st, because the Aggies are coming to town.


West

1. Fresno State

            The loss of Derek Carr should prove to be small, because Fresno State breeds quarterbacks. But the Bulldogs do lose their top two pass catchers in DeVante Adams and Isaiah Burse and that could prove to be too much to overcome. One bright spot is that the defense comes back nearly in tact and should improve upon its 30 points allowed per game. Fresno State always finds offense, and if the defense improves Fresno State will contend for another Mountain West title.


2. Nevada

            Nevada has struggled ever since their inception in the Mountain West conference, but this year they are poised for contention. For starters, the defense returns with a lot more experience than they had a year ago (top three tacklers return). Quarterback Cody Fajardo also returns with last year top three rushers. They have all the right personnel coming back, and a decent schedule as they do not draw Utah State from the Mountain division, and get back Boise State and Fresno State at home. The Wolf Pack could be ready to roar.


Mountain West Championship: Boise State vs. Fresno State

            This would be a very underrated/intriguing conference game that nobody would talk about compared to the Big 10/Pac-12/ACC/SEC title games. However if this played out, as it should, it would be intriguing to see how well Boise State can move from the Chris Peterson Era and can Fresno State move on from the Derek Carr Era. Both teams are at a crossroads, but will find themselves in contention for the MW title. While the conference lacks the potential it once had when TCU, Utah, and BYU were members these two programs could attempt bring some attention back to the conference. Boise State wins in a shootout.

Winner: Boise State



MAC- Winner: Bowling Green

            “Falcon Fast” as the offense is now being called at Bowling Green, head coach Dino Babers is bringing his high octane offense who will take on a completely different identity than one year ago. Last year the Falcons were led by their stellar defense which held opponents to under 20 points a game routinely last season. Unfortunately, Bowling Green lost a lot of talent on that side of the ball (only 5 starters return to the defense) and they figure to be less formidable on defense.
            But this new offensive philosophy may be too much for MAC teams to handle as Barbers proved time and time again throughout his collegiate coaching career to produce great quarterbacks. He was on the Baylor staff that help create RG3, and then he moved to Eastern Illinois where turned Jimmy Garoppolo into the next great Patriot back-up quarterback (i.e Matt Cassell? Ok how about i.e. Brian Hoyer? i.e. maybe Ryan Mallett? Can I use i.e. Drew Bledsoe??? Tom Brady was a back-up once). While many attribute the change of philosophy and lack of defense prowess to contribute to the Falcon decline, the rest of the conference is going through its own issues. Jordan Lynch is gone at Northern Illinois, Ohio and Akron are not ready yet and Ball State’s defense couldn’t stop a parked car.
            Bowling Green is not changing, adopting, or improvising like their other MAC opponents, they are evolving. “Falcon Fast” will triumph in the MAC.


Conference USA: Winner: Marshall

            “We Are Marshall!” Despite how terrible that movie was Marshall will finally get back to their winning ways. Marshall has the formula in place to get to a second straight Conference USA title game, and this time they will close the deal. The QB-WR connection of Rakeem Cato and Tommy Shuler will be potent enough to allow the newcomers to the offense to develop and shine. The defense was not exactly a powerhouse a season ago, they did give up less than 20 points a game then they did in 2012. This season the defense returns 7 starters who should continue that same success.
            The Conference USA has also been pillaged in recent years, with the most recent member East Carolina, a routine conference contender, now departing for the American Athletic Conference. So unfortunately for the conference, but fortunately for Marshall, the Thundering Herd has little competition. Marshall should run away with the conference.



Future College Football Re-Alignment Ideas:

1) American Athletic Conference

            -Adds Northern Illinois & Marshall
           
            The Conference will add Navy for football next season which will bring them to twelve teams, but the additions of Tulane and Tulsa will prove to be flops, as neither program is impressive or add depth to the conference. In order to add more geographical sense, adding two teams from the mid-west and mid-Atlantic area makes sense. Northern Illinois have established a winning way as they are coming off of four straight double digit win seasons, and will most likely make it five this season. While Marshall’s had its first double digit win season last year (for the first time since 2002) Marshall was routinely conference champions in the former Mid-American conference and has proven to be a recruiting destination and produce NFL caliber talent (i.e. Randy Moss, Chad Pennington, Byron Leftwich). With West Virginia struggling in Big 12, Virginia refusing to gain relevance, and Viginia Tech on a steady decline, Marshall has the potential to be an attractive destination in the Virginia/West Virginia area. The American needs to find “prospects” to the conference, just like when they added Houston and SMU (stayed tuned for those two), and Marshall could be that prospect.

2) Big 12

            -Adds SMU and Houston

            While Big 12 commissioner, Bob Bowlsby, continues to make outlandish comments about the conference, it will never be recognized as elite as the SEC or PAC-12 for that matter. No I am not talking about his comments about “cheating”, which I am sure none of his Big 12 teams do (cough Oklahoma State cough), I am talking about not having a Big 12 title game. Apparently Bowlsby is the only human on earth who thinks not having a conference title game is a good thing. So while he has no aspirations of adding teams to get that title game, it is still fun to do it for him.
            I think the Big 12 should also continue to strengthen the conference from within their geographic region. While June Jones has yet to create the program at SMU we all thought he would have created by now, like he did in Hawaii, SMU is still an attractive program because of their location in Dallas, and their rivalries with Big 12 foes (i.e. Texas). Houston has established a winning program, and would make natural enemies with the other Texas schools. I know BYU has made strong indications that they would like to join the conference, but it makes little sense to add the school that has no pipelines worthwhile for Big 12 schools to recruit from. But BYU would make sense…


3) PAC-12

            -Adds BYU, Subtracts Colorado

            The PAC-12 can bring back one of the greatest rivalries in all college football (Utah-BYU) and add some real implications to the game and finally BYU does won’t have to float in the abyss of being an independent.

            Colorado is probably one of the most tragic programs in the country. My visions of seeing Kordell Stewart beating Nebraska and being contenders in the Big 12 are long gone. A generation of kids are growing up in Boulder with no memories of good days in Colorado. While the money, I’m sure is great being in the Big 12, the profit margins of 2-12 season year after year can’t be that great. Colorado needs to start over, perhaps in a new conference and try to reestablish credibility (how about the Mountain West? Can play their instate rivals every year, less competition could equal more titles, then maybe spring board that back to the Big 12.)

No comments:

Post a Comment