With less than a week from Thursday’s NFL Draft and the
number one story seems to be where will Marcus Mariota land? According to the
expert’s “big board” Mariota is not only the 2nd best quarterback
prospect (behind Jameis Winston) in this year’s draft but he has been regarded
as the 2nd best prospect. Therefore it would only make sense for the
Tennessee Titans, a franchise that has been quarterback deprived over the past decade.
So why is it not a slam-dunk that the Titans draft the ‘polished, athletic,
intelligent’ Mariota? To answer that question let’s go back a decade.
Tennessee Decision
2005
In
2005, the Titans went 4-12 and their franchise was at an impasse. The greatest
quarterback in Titans history, Steve “Air” McNair, who had once led the Titans
to just one yard short of going to into overtime in Super Bowl XXXIV, was now
on the outs. McNair, who threw for over 3,000 yards five times, more than 20+
touchdowns three times, and four playoff appearances in ten years, was done.
The Titans were trading up for a newer model.
In
that year’s draft the Tennessee Titans were elated when the dynamic Vince Young
fell into their laps with the third overall pick. For the Titans, the pick was
an obvious one. Vince Young was coming off one of the most legendary
performances in College Football history when he led the Longhorns over the USC
Trojans in the National Championship. The game seemed to be in the early
transitional stages of moving to a more wide-open style of play, where an
athletic quarterback could best be utilized. And there was no quarterback at
that time that was more athletic than Vince Young. The Houston Texans, who were
also on the lookout for a franchise quarterback, and Young who lived in Texas,
played at Texas, seemed to make the most sense. But the Texans passed and
instead took defensive end Mario Williams that shocked not only the entire
state of Texas but also the entire NFL community. It seemed to be destiny that
Young ended up with the Titans.
But
when you peel back the onion that was with Vince Young, and the onion that has
been our athletic quarterbacks over the past decade, that match was never
there. Head Coach Jeff Fisher never totally committed to tailoring the offense
to match Vince Young’s skill set. Jeff Fisher, of the West Coast persuasion
tried to evolve Vince Young’s game into a more traditional one, but ultimately
he was trying to put a round peg into square hole. This, and a number of other
things, contributed to the downfall (some say the inevitable downfall) of Vince
Young. But the Titans may have learned a valuable lesson for this year’s draft.
Back in 2005, perhaps the Titans were not as “in love” with Vince Young as they
thought, and if you are not in love with the quarterback you are choosing in
the first round, then why would you take him?
Looking at the First
Round Quarterbacks
Traditional QBs
|
Athletic QBs
|
Andrew Luck
|
Cam Newton
|
Matt Ryan
|
Robert Griffin III
|
Joe Flacco
|
Teddy Bridgewater
|
Matt Stafford
|
Ryan Tannehill
|
Jay Cutler
|
Vince Young
|
Sam Bradford
|
Johnny Manziel
|
Blake Bortles
|
Blaine Gabbert
|
Mark Sanchez
|
Tim Tebow
|
Jake Locker
|
Josh Freeman
|
Brady Quinn
|
JeMarcus Russell
|
Matt Leinart
|
|
Christian Ponder
|
|
EJ Manuel
|
In
this chart above you see that every quarterback that has been taken in the
first round, since 2005, is divided into two categories. The “Traditional”
quarterbacks were the quarterbacks who came out of college and recognized as
your traditional pocket passers, who had a skill set to beat you primarily with
his arm, while as the “Athletic” quarterbacks had the ability to run and throw
(but not throw as well as the Traditional QBs). Taking a look at this list
there are some striking observations. First, out of the 13 “Traditional”
quarterbacks, six of them are starters in the NFL and only Jake Locker, Matt
Leinart, and Brady Quinn are out of the league. As for the 10 “Athletic”
quarterbacks only Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater, and RG3 are considered
starters, and Young, Tebow, Freeman and Russell are all out of the league. So
what does this all mean?
For
starters, as much as the league has evolved, athletic quarterbacks have yet to
be a mainstay in a system designed to utilize their skills. These athletic
quarterbacks have yet to make a quantum leap in the game, nor replace these old
school gun slingers who typically find success in the NFL. Is it because these
quarterbacks who come from these “one-read offenses” cannot understand the
NFL’s complexities? (i.e. Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Tannehill) They are not as fast
in the NFL as they appeared to be in college? (i.e. Johnny Manziel, Tim Tebow,
Josh Freeman) Or are they too often hurt because they cannot take the beating
they receive outside of the pocket? (i.e. RG3, Vince Young?) All of these
questions are part of the issue. But if that’s the case…why is Cam Newton so
good?
Why has Cam Newton
been successful?
It
is actually quite simple. The Panthers completely surrendered to the skill set
of Cam Newton and rightfully so. When Newton came out of college as a National
Championship winning/Heisman quarterback the Panthers recognized the success
that Newton had created at Auburn. In order to duplicate that success in
Carolina, there was only one-way Cam Newton could play, and that was his way.
Carolina
immediately adopted a hybrid of the Auburn offense that Gene Chizik and Gus
Malzahn had ushered in. The Panthers slowly began to find players to fit the
system, or could adapt to the system and created the ultimate safety valve for
Cam Newton, a dynamic defense. Much
like you would a pocket passer, you don’t try to ‘change’ your first-round
quarterback, you nurture a system around him in order to be successful. That is
precisely what Carolina has done. The Panthers went all in on Newton, and
thankfully, Newton’s big frame has kept him relatively healthy. Healthy enough
to lead the Panthers to the playoffs in two of his first three seasons and one
of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL.
What does this mean
for Mariota?
In
no way whatsoever, is my “theory” suggesting an athletic quarterback cannot be
successful in the NFL. Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Michael Vick have all be
successful to different degrees in the NFL. What makes Aaron Rodgers the
‘baddest man on the planet’ as Stephen A. Smith so eloquently states is because
of his duality. But what Rodgers, Newton, and Wilson all have that may not be
at the 2nd overall pick in this year’s NFL draft, is a team who is
willing to go all in on Mariota. Let’s look at his rumored suitors:
Tennessee Titans:
It has been reported on multiple occasions that the Titans really like Zach
Mettenberger. I mean, what’s not to like? But on a more serious note, head
coach Ken Whisenhunt seems to be keen on giving Mettenberg one more year to see
if he can do what Whisenhunt has done with the likes of Philip Rivers, Kurt
Warner, and Ben Roethlisberger. Now the one thing that I notice out of those
three quarterbacks is that, none of them remind me of Marcus Mariota. Perhaps
what makes Whisenhunt so smitten with Metteberger is that he is more
comfortable with a more traditional quarterback.
Cleveland Browns:
They are being considered the favorites to move up and select Mariota. But
Cleveland has been so toxic in recent years that Mariota does not deserve the
fate that would await him in Cleveland.
New York Jets:
This could prove to be an ideal place for Mariota. If you think the Jets are as
cursed as the Browns seem to be, you need to ignore the noise and recent
history of the Jets. First thing is first, the Jets have a new ‘brain trust’
and a simplistic philosophy that could work for Mariota like it does for Newton
in Carolina. However, the one large road block that stands in the Jets way may
be offensive coordinator Chan Gailey. Gailey is a more old school type mind and
if he is unwilling to adopt an ‘Oregon Style’ offense than Mariota’s fate could
be sealed in New York. At least he
would have plenty of company…
San Diego: San
Diego is also rumored to trade up to the 2nd spot because it seems
that Philip Rivers may decided to not stay in San Diego after this season. If
that is the case and San Diego is prepared to reconstruct the entire offense
around Mariota than this could be a great fit. It would be better if Mariota
could sit for a year and slowly emerge as the quarterback in San Diego, but the
only way San Diego may be ble to get their hands on Mariota is by dealing
Rivers to Tennessee.
Philadelphia Eagles:
This is without a doubt the ideal fit for Mariota and the Eagles. To reunite
with head coach Chip Kelly would maximize Mariota’s abilities and skill set.
You never know exactly what Kelly is thinking, but the conventional thinking is
that Mariota would fit best in Philadelphia.
What Should Tennessee
do?
I
think what they should do, and what they will do, is if they cannot get their
ideal trade from any of the teams above, you do what Texans did on 2005; select
the best defensive player. Leonard Williams would fit very well in Tennessee
and give the Titans the first impact player on the defensive side since…Jevon
Kearse?
No team, no matter how desperate
they are for a model franchise quarterback should ever try to sell themselves
on the most important possession in the game. If you aren’t willing to move
mountains for him, don’t draft him. We have seen the likes of the Cleveland
Browns, New York Jets, Washington Redskins, Oakland Raiders, year in and year
out, select quarterbacks with ‘drunk girl, after a bad breakup’ mentality. It’s
not like you can’t take a chance in the draft, some of the best choices have
been chances, but just not on a quarterback in the first round. Its like
walking into a bar and declaring to the crowd that “I’m finding my spouse
tonight!” That marriage is not built to last.
It will be interesting to see when
and where Mariota will be selected. It will be even more interesting to see how
it will work out. Can another “Athletic” quarterback have long sustained
success in the NFL and will the next one be Mariota? As has been the case with
Newton, Vick and Wilson, it all depends on not when he goes, but where he goes.
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