AFC East
1. New England
Patriots
2. New York Jets
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Miami Dolphins
Why the Patriots to
win the East?
Because
it is what they do. The Patriots have won the division every year since 2002
and it doesn’t seem like it will change this year. The Patriots have reloaded
on defense, and may have the best defensive unit in the Bill Belichick era.
Darrelle Revis and Brandown Browner (when he returns from suspension in Week 5)
will lead a very physical secondary, veterans Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo
return from injury, and youngsters Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins look to
take another step forward on the youngest defense in the NFL.
While
the defense may be the strongest the Patriots have seen in over a decade, the
offense appears to be one of the weakest during the same tenure. Despite having
one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time in Tom Brady (or what realists
will call the greatest quarterback ever) and Rob Gronkowski returning from ACL
surgery the major question marks will be on the remaining skill players. The
running backs are a strong, yet inconsistent group led by fumble-junky Steven
Ridley. But if Vereen can play a whole season, and James White can live up to
the training camp hype, the Patriots could rely on their running game, as they
did a season ago. The receivers pose little threat, as the Patriots are waiting
for their youngsters, Aaron Dobson and Kembrell Tompkins to emerge as a deep
threat to compliment the underneath route runners in Julian Edelman and Danny
Amendola.
If
the Patriots offense can play the way they did at the end of the regular season
when they average 33 points a game, Dobson and Tompkins emerge, Gronkowski
stays healthy and the defense can play up to its billing the Patriots will be
one of the best in the NFL. But to win the east, they really only need 2 of the
4 to happen.
Why the Dolphins in
last place?
Lack
of identity. There is just nothing the Dolphins do particularly well to sustain
their .500 level of play, and the Dolphins will begin to take steps backwards
this year. Ryan Tanniehill will get another year to prove he is not the
starting quarterback the Dolphins need, and he will not be able to lean on a
running game, that despite the addition of Knowshon Moreno will be anything
less than potent. The defense will keep the Dolphins in many games, but unless
Tanniehill makes a giant leap forward, and Mike Wallace can recapture some of
his past glory, the Dolphins will be at the bottom of this division.
Are the Jets and
Bills good enough?
Ehhh
maybe? Both teams are actually strikingly similar, as both boast some of the
best defenses in the league and have front sevens that can dictate the game
against any opponent. But both have major questions marks with their second
year quarterbacks, Geno Smith and EJ Manuel. Both quarterbacks appear to have
the physical tools, atheletiscim, and arm strength to be successful in the NFL,
but the mentality of these two youngsters are still in question. Both Geno and
EJ are too reliant on their single reads (evident in EJ Manuel’s first
preseason game against the Giants this past weekend) and unless they can
develop the game between the 6 inches between their ears, then both the Bills
and Jets will struggle to get to .500 this season. But if either quarterback
can emerge, or Michael Vick can have one last dance in the NFL, both will come
up short of the playoffs this season.
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Pittsburgh
Steelers
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Cleveland Browns
Why the Ravens to win
the North?
Because
I believe in the Ravens more than any other team in the North. Pittsburgh is
not ready yet, Cincinnati losses of Mike Zimmer and Jay Gruden will prove to be
too much, and Cleveland is pop to win this division. Gary Kubiak was an
excellent addition to help re-create this offense and the zone running scheme
should help Ray Rice recapture some of his former prowess and Bernard Pierce
emerge into a threat. If the running game can open up the passing game Joe
Flacco and Torrey Smith can perhaps be the connection that Baltimore always
hoped for.
Why the Browns in
last place?
They
are too pop. I feel that if I want to learn about the Browns I don’t need to
watch ESPN I can just watch ET and learn everything I need too. While I don’t
feel the it is all Johnny Manziel’s fault, he would have created this buzz
anywhere he would have gone, he has not done much to help the situation.
Whether he is going out clubbing at night, or eating alone at the team
facility’s cafeteria (Did anyone ask what he was eating? I’m guessing it was
either Taco Bar or Italian Dunkers) it seems like any Johnny Football news is
bad Johnny Football news. If that wasn’t a distraction enough you still have
the whole Josh Gordon issue up in the air and he could be suspended anywhere
from 4 games to 16 games this season (If the whole second hand smoke excuse
didn’t work, do you think he would have tried to pass the bag of weed off as
pencil shavings or potpourri?).
I
do think head coach Mike Petitine is the right man for the job, especially in
this division and he should do wonders in this division. But Cleveland appears
to be a team that is 2-3 years away from where they want to be. Just not enough
playmakers, and what appears to be too much turmoil to get out of the basement
in 2014.
Are the Steelers and
Bengals good enough?
They
should be but that doesn’t mean they will be. Pittsburgh was on the verge of
the playoffs a year ago and have the pedigree to get back there, whereas
Cincinnati is favored by many experts to win the division. But the problem with
both the Steelers and the Bengals is, I just don’t know what I am going to get
from them. Pittsburgh hasn’t addressed the receiving corps well enough to prove
that it is not a problem, and while the defense is young it is also unproven.
Cincinnati has playmakers on both sides of the ball, but they continue to keep
finding ways to lose games they shouldn’t (like in the playoffs), and with new
coordinators in place, I expect this Bengals club to be one of the worst in the
past few seasons. I’ll take a gamble, on the Rooneys, Mike Tomlin, and Ben
Roethlisberger but not on Mike Brown, Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Jacksonville
Jaguars
4. Houston Texans
Why the Colts to win
the South?
Because
it’s the Colts division and it will be for years and years. While Andrew Luck has a lot to do with
that, the ineptitude of the division rivals has something to do with that as
well. While the rest of the division struggles to play keep-up with the Colts,
the Colts will continue to get better, and get 6 great tune-up games to get
ready for their playoff push. The Colts went out and added big time receiver
Hakeem Nicks to give Luck another toy in this offense, and if Reggie Wayne can
return from his injury and Trent Richardson can figure the offense out, the
Colts could have the most potent offense in the NFL.
This
is a big year for Indianapolis to take a major step forward and prove they
should be mentioned in the same breath as the Patriots and Broncos for the
favorites in the AFC. A 12+ win season should do that, and while winning the
division is not the accomplishment they are looking for, it is one they will
surely get.
Why the Texans in
last place?
Because
as much as I love Bill O’Brien and his ‘Patriot Genius’ they are still a really
bad team. Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, and a declining Arian Foster spells
disaster for an offense that was already 31st in the league last
season in points per game (17.2). The arrival of Clowney will make the front
four even more potent, especially teaming up with J.J. Watt, but the Texans
gave up 27 ppg and were 30th in the league against the pass. While
the Texans were a perennial playoff team just two years ago, this team is well
past its expiration date, and the dumping process is taking longer than it
should.
I
know Houston has hopes that Bill O’Brien can turn things around quickly like he
did at Penn State, but this is going to be a long re-building process. Buckle
down Houston.
Are the Titans and
Jaguars good enough?
They
will be better, but not good enough for a run at the playoffs. Ken Whisenhunt’s arrival in Tennessee should help spark
some life into one of the saddest offenses in the past 5 years. While it may not
resemble the glory years of Steve McNair, Eddie George, and Derrick Mason,
Whisenhunt may have something in rookie Bishop Sankey and big, vertical,
playmaker Justin Hunter, the second year player out of Tennessee. But once
again it comes back to the quarterback and Jake Locker has one more year to
prove that he is an NFL quarterback.
Jacksonville has quietly gotten
better, especially on defense thanks to Gus Bradley. But they made news on
draft day when they selected native Floridian Blake Bortles with the third
overall pick in the draft. Bradley is contingent on Bortles not playing this
season, but you would have to think at some point Bortles sees meaningful
playing time this season. With new young receivers in Jacksonville, they could
have a very underrated young offensive corps growing in Jacksonville to one day
match the defense. But that one day won’t be in 2014.
AFC West
1. Denver Broncos
2. San Diego Chargers
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Oakland Raiders
Why the Broncos to
win the West?
Too
much talent for anyone to overcome. Denver took the offseason to reload on
defense by adding Aqib Talib, Demarcus Ware, and TJ Ward then replaced Erik
Decker with a speedy receiver in Emmanuel Sanders. While all the expectations
in Denver are once again, Super Bowl or bust, one has to wonder if Denver has
adjusted their thinking after the Super Bowl? It is clear that in order to beat
the Seattle’s of the world, you cannot spread them out with slow, big vertical
threats, so it will be interesting to see if Denver finds a way to commit to a
running game. Monte Ball should see a lot of action this season, and if he can
resemble a possible re-creation of Edgerin James, Denver may be a lock to go to
the Super Bowl…and possibly finish the job.
Why the Raiders in
last place?
I
think the Raiders had one of the best offseason in the NFL. They went out and
got stronger, and more experienced on defense (I.e. Justin Tuck, Lamar Woodley,
Carlos Rogers, Charles Woodson, and Nick Roach) and then had Khalil Mack fall
in their laps in the draft, and experts are already making predictions that
Mack won’t be just the best defensive rookie this year, but the best defensive
player in the league, this year. But as good as the defense looks, the offense
looks just as ugly. The Raiders are trying to squeeze as much out of Matt
Schaub as possible, but that ketchup bottle appears to be empty. Derek Carr is
a project at best. And no matter how many washed up running backs Oakland wants
to acquire, MJD and Darren McFadden will be lucky to play 10 games between the
two of them. Defense wins championships…only if the Offense can score. The
Raiders won’t score much.
Are the Chargers and
Chiefs good enough?
These
two teams will battle all year long for a wild-card spot, and both could make
the playoffs with the Broncos. Philip Rivers seems to have regained his elite
status, and wide receiver Keenan Allen and tight end Ladarius Green are poised
to elevate their game even further to give the Chargers an excellent attack,
especially if running back Ryan Mathews can stay healthy. The Chiefs won’t
sneak up on anyone, and a regression in their production is expected (Jamal
Charles was great, but can he be that great again?) but the Chiefs also have an
abundance of talent, on both sides of the ball, and they will be in the playoff
race until the end.
The Wild-Card Teams
1. San Diego Chargers
I
think the Chargers have something that many teams search for, and cannot
acquire. The Chargers have a moxy, and we saw it last year against Denver and
then against Cincinnati in the playoffs. They have the right mix of veterans
and budding youngsters to take another step forward, but that moxy quality will
keep them in games you wouldn’t expect. The Chargers may not be the best team,
but they will be one of the hardest to beat.
2. Pittsburgh
Steelers
I
am not going to bet against Steelers not making the playoffs two years in a
row. You shouldn’t either.
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