Friday, August 30, 2013

College Football Preview


College Football Preview


Is it just me or is anyone else eager to see the College Football season get underway! Now granted it technically already has with a triplet of good games Thursday night, but to me the true start of College Football is only hours away. I can’t wait for Gameday at 9am, 10am chicken wings, pre game nap at 11am, and kickoff at noon. I love college football but what I think I love more is to stop seeing the same college football stores. Enough with Johnny Manziel signing autographs, or not signing autographs, sleeping in on Manning camp, getting kicked out of UT frat parties. Enough with Jadevon Clowney and his hit on Vincent Smith, knocking over tackling dummies (dummies don’t hit back) and talk about him being the best football player in the entire sport! I got so tired of seeing the same images all offseason long that I am ready to see some new faces and new stories. But some stories will not be different. Alabama is still the best in the country, and will most likely not lose that title at year’s end. As some images change, some stay the same, either way it is good to have football back.

The Best Team In August is: Alabama

            Alabama is seeking to make its historic mark on the 2013-2014 season. A three-peat in this day an age is a rarity, as today; every sport makes its due diligence to provide parity across the board. But Alabama dominance in the past five years is as synonymous to football as is Nick Saban to polos. What is the recipe for a repeat? How about returning your quarterback, AJ McCaron, who has started for the last two title teams, his favorite big, speedy, athletic in target Amari Cooper, and one of the most electrifying backs in the conference in TJ Yeldon. 

The Best Team in January is: Alabama

            It seems every year pre-season critics of Alabama want to say:  “look at what Alabama lost” as the thesis as to why Alabama will not return to the top. Whether they lose first round corners, or first round safeties, first round linebackers, defensive lineman, offensive lineman, running backs, or receivers, Alabama always manages to reload. But the key thing to remember when you are trying to identify who the best team in the country is, is that you have to look at a team’s weaknesses. Alabama’s weakness year in and year out is that they are just not as explosive as some of the “sexier” teams in the country are. They don’t have a quarterback like Johnny Manziel, they don’t have an offense like a Big 12 team that will score 40 points in a game (and give up 60) and they have no real gimics on offense to make opponents scratch their head. Bama simply lineups in their one-back formation and says “Ok here we come”.  Again, if Bama’s biggest weakness is their offensive prowess, I refer you back to the previous paragraph. I mean really, is anyone really worried about Alabama replacing their linebackers and/or offensive lineman?


The Most Overrated Team In The Country Is: South Carolina

            I don’t know what I am more tired of hearing, Johnny Manziel doing something stupid, or how good South Carolina is? Must we keep referring back to the hit Jadevon Clowney had on Vincent Jackson in last year’s bowl game as a key part of evidence? (Yes I may still be a little bitter as a Michigan fan over that) But are they really worth all the attention they have been getting? Yes, Jadevon Cloweny is good, and yes ‘The Ole Ball Coach’ still remains at the top of his class, but do people honestly believe this is a title contending team or do they just want them to be a title contending team? Despite the fact that South Carolina avoids SEC West giants Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M, but in order for South Carolina to compete for the national title they are going to have to beat the giants in the East, Florida and Georgia. Since 2005, Spurrier’s first season with the Gamecocks, South Carolina has only beaten Florida and Georgia in the same season, once (2011) and at the end of the year neither Georgia or Florida was ranked. This year both teams are top 10 teams. And don’t forgot South Carolina has to play Clemson another top 10 team. So in order for South Carolina to go to the national title game, they will most likely have to beat Florida, Georgia and Clemson…and then go beat an Alabama in the SEC title game. Is anyone else interested in jumping off this ship (ESPN I give you another week, and I am sailing away in my life boat).


The Most Underrated Team In The Country is: UCLA

            Can we get some love for Hollywood! Jim Mora Jr. has done an excellent job with UCLA both on and off the field and it looks like the USC/UCLA rivalry could be the best in PAC 12 in the very near future, primarily because UCLA looks like they are here to stay and compete for a PAC-12 Title once again. Brett Hundley is one of the best quarterback prospects in the country. He has the size; arm strength and intangibles to carry UCLA back to the PAC-12 title game.  Pairing Hundley up with playmaking wide receiver Shaquelle Evans gives the Bruins one of the most explosive and experienced offenses in the PAC and linebacker Anthony Barr is projecting to be a top ten pick in next April’s draft. UCLA has playmakers all over the field and could be a series BCS buster to title hopefuls in the PAC.

           

The Best Player In The Country Is: Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson

            Johnny Manziel and Jadevon Clowney have been reguarded, throughout the offseason, as the two best players in college football. Manziel for his instant playmaking ability, Clowney for his sheer ferocity, speed, and hit-stick potential. But too many times in sports, we become too obsessed with “stuff”. The highlight reel is great, and Manziel and Clowney do have a knack for being regulars, but there is reason why when we watch Sportscenter, title winners are at the beginning of the show and the “Top Ten Plays” are at the end. There is just more to player than a flashy athletic moment or two. And franky, Manziel and Clowney have seem too much like “flash” to be considered the best player in the country.
            So I will take a safe pick and take Tajh Boyd, well because, he is the best player in the country. For all of what Manziel can do, Boyd does the same, if not better. Now granted Manziel won the Heisman, has already been deemed a top ten pick if he chooses to come out this year, and had better numbers than Boyd…well wait a minute


Comp %
TD (Rush)
INT
Yards (Rush)
Boyd
67.2
36 (10)
13
3896 (514)
Manziel
68.0
26 (21)
9
3706 (1410)


            Granted Manziel’s 1,410 rushing yards is mind boggling and he was able to put up all of these numbers in the SEC but if you take a closer look at “Johnny Football’s” numbers last year, there is something that could be telling about his NFL potential.

            When you look at when Manziel played against the top teams in the SEC last season (Florida, Ole Miss, LSU, Alabama), three of those opponents resemble what an NFL defense could look like. And here were Manziel’s numbers:

Florida: 23-30, 173 yards 0-0, Rushed 17 times for 60 yards and a TD
Ole Miss: 17-26, 191 yards 1-2, Rushed 20 times for 129 yards and a TD
LSU: 29-56, 276 yards 0-3, Rushed 17 times for 27 yards and no TDs
Alabama: 24-31, 253 yards 2-0, Rushed 18 times for 92 yards and no TDs

Alabama was essential the game Manziel won the Heisman trophy, but one should keep in mind that most the of the stats Manziel collected for that game came in the first half and once Alabama made its adjustments it completely shut down the Aggies offense and Johnny. There is no doubt that Manziel looked impressive last year, but if one keeps in context that he looked more impressive versus Arkansas, SMU and South Carolina STATE, you come away with a different picture. The problem is with Johnny football is that we do not look at the whole picture. We see, time and time again the play against Alabama when he fumbled the snap, juggled it around, did a 360, and threw a touchdown pass. College fans have focused on that image over and over again but instead we need to zoom out, and look at the whole picture. Against those four teams Manziel averaged: 223 passing yards on 36 attempts with 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. And if you are still obsessing about the rushing numbers, he averaged 18 carries for 77 yards and 1 touchdown.

Now Boyd plays in the ACC which is naturally considered not as formidable as the SEC but Boyd has still played his fair share of tough defenses with NFL caliber talent.

Florida State: 20-36, 237 yards 3-1. Rushed 18 times for 44 yards, and no TDs
Virginia Tech: 12-21 160 yards 1-1. Rushed 20 times for 27 yards, and 2 TDs
South Carolina: 11-24 183 yards 1-2. Rushed 17 times for 26 yards and 1 TDs
LSU (Bowl Game): 36-50, 346 yards 2-0, Rushed 29 times for 22 yards and 1 TD

Average: 33 attempts, 224 yards, 7 touchdowns 4 interceptions. 4 rushing touchdowns

Even with truly bad games against Virginia Tech (who he torched last season in the ACC title game), and South Carolina (a defense Manziel did not have to face last season) Boyd put virtually the same amount of yards with a better TD-INT ratio without any real threat of running the ball. I would argue that Boyd’s NFL upside is far superior to Johnny Manziel, even despite the fact that Boyd will be senior and Manziel will be a sophomore, because if both leave at the end of the year you would have to believe that most NFL scouts will take the more polished passer.

Manziel will sell a lot of jerseys wherever he goes, but if the past offseason is any indicator Boyd will cause his team less headaches than Manziel will. Just another stat Boyd has an edge in.



Game of the Month in September: Alabama @ Texas A&M, September 14th : The winner of this game goes to the National Championship

Game of the Month in October: Ohio State @ Northwester, October 5th: October is the best month for College Football, but this is my sneaky good game of the year. Northwestern has a lot of momentum on their side, and I think this is the game where everyone gets to know Pat Fitzgerald

Game of the Month in November: Oregon @ Stanford, November 7th : Aside from the historic rivalries, if we are to judge rivalry games on talent and title game implications, this is the best rivalry in the country right now.

ACC Winner: Clemson over Virginia Tech
American Athletic Winner: Louisville
Big 10 Winner: Ohio State over Michigan
Big 12 Winner: Texas
Pac 12 Winner: Stanford over UCLA
SEC Winner: Alabama over Georgia

National Title Game: Alabama over Stanford 

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