Saturday May 16th marks the start of the 140th Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Track in Baltimore Maryland – here is hoping the civil unrest has quieted down enough to ensure that this event goes off without a bang (pun intended!). After my last column regarding the Kentucky Derby, I am not too upset with the results of my bets – yes I won $0.00, but I had a great time losing my money and feel that if anything, it has taught me a little bit about this year’s field of horses and what to expect at Pimlico.
For those of you that are not big fans of horse racing, The Preakness is the second leg of The Triple Crown and the shortest of the three tracks. This means that horses with that “break away” speed in short bursts are not necessarily bad bets – just ask me and I’ll give you the bad bets! The Preakness may be best known for its infamous infield, where in years past patrons both old and young are able to watch the race from inside the race. Wait, let’s be honest, the infield is a raucous crowd filled with drunken college students who are all attempting to maintain the perfect level of drunkenness while still being able to watch the race without blacking out. Over the past few years, the powers that be at Pimlico have limited the drunken mayhem on the infield ever since the infamous “Porter Potty Run” began – for those of you that don’t know, the main attraction during the race buildup was to watch drunken spectators attempt to run across the top of the line of dozens of potter potty’s while onlookers hurled full and empty beer cans at them trying to knock them off, let’s call it the poor man’s “Wipe Out”.
I digress, back to the subject at hand, the race. The race itself is 1.9km and post time is currently 6:18pm with the forecast currently calling for the temperature to be in the high 80’s with a possible chance of rain. Rain is not in the forecast leading up to the race this week meaning that the track will be in similar conditions to that of the running of the 141st Kentucky Derby just two weeks ago. The interesting part about the Preakness this year is, not only is the field less than half the size of that of the Kentucky Derby, but Trainer Todd Pletcher has decided to skip the event yet again. Meaning that the 8 horse field will lack the potential upset favorites in Mr Pletcher’s stable (Carpe Diem being the most notable absent).
American Pharoah (AP) the reigning Kentucky Derby winner is the odds on favorite at 4-5 to take the Preakness. AP again being jockeyed by Victor Espinoza, is looking to claim the second phase of The Triple Crown. AP looked solid during the Kentucky Derby, a great start followed by staying at the front of the pack for the entire race before finally claiming victory. It is hard to bet against this horse, but I think I will. The race is 1/16th of a mile shorter than the Derby, AP needed that last 1/16th at Churchill Downs to claim victory over Firing Line, making this win far from a sure thing. Also, claiming the number 1 pole position means that AP will have to come off the inside rail at the start to set an advantageous position in the pack.
The second favorite at 7-2 odds is Dortmund. Dortmund left me in the red last race as I had picked him to win it all. I still think Dortmund is one of the strongest 3 year olds in the field and will continue to show why he was undefeated up until 2 weeks ago. Pulling the 2nd post position, Dortmund ridden by Martin Garcia, will be right up alongside AP and will be able to determine when to push. Again, in the Kentucky Derby, Dortmund saw his Rose Ceremony dreams dashed in the final 1/16th of a mile – I obviously can’t stress enough how important that final 1/16th is going to be.
The third favorite to take the title at Pimlico is Firing Line ridden by Gary Stevens at 4-1 odds. Quite frankly, its hard to bet against the seasoned veteran that is Gary Stevens. And for anyone that’s ever seen the movie “Seabiscuit”, it will hard to bet against the jockey that provided Tobey Maguire with that Hollywood moment. Pulling the 8th post position, Firing Line is poised to win out of a favorable gate in which jockey Gary Stevens will not have to worry about any horses pulling on his right. Not a total surprise that the top 3 finishers of the Derby are the top three favorites in The Preakness. Firing Line was the leader of the Derby going into the last 1/16th of a mile, it would not be a shocker to see this horse take down The Preakness this weekend.
The Field:
Post
|
Horse
|
Morning Line odds
|
1
|
American Pharoah
|
4/5
|
2
|
Dortmund
|
3/1
|
3
|
Mr. Z
|
20/1
|
4
|
Danzig Moon
|
15/1
|
5
|
Tale of Verve
|
30/1
|
6
|
Bodhisattva
|
20/1
|
7
|
Diving Rod
|
12/1
|
8
|
Firing Line
|
4/1
|
My Bets:
Winner: Dortmund – I went with him for the first race, I’d be shooting myself in the foot if I don’t take him this race and he pulls out the victory.
Exacta: Firing Line, AP – This is how the Derby looked going into the final 1/16th, not a bet gamble to see this happen again in the smaller field.
Exacta Box: Firing Line and Dortmund – Hedging my bets
Trifecta Box: AP, Firing Line, Dortmund – Seems like the sure thing
Superfecta Box: Firing Line, Dortmund, AP, Danzig Moon
Long Shot: Mr Z. – Bet to show (Finish top 3)
Again, post time is 6:18pm this Saturday May 16th. Slug down a few bourbon on the rocks and head to your local OTB and roll the dice; who knows, maybe you’ll end up winning a few hundred dollars but at the very least it’ll help make the race more interesting for you. Let’s make some bad decisions and win some money! Or, at the very least, throw on your favorite seersucker suit, pour yourself a nice frothy beverage, and enjoy the race over a barbecue with friends – which I intend to do minus the suit. As always, enjoy the race, drink up and win big!
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