American Athletic Conference Preview and Predictions

1. Cincinnati

            Cincinnati looks like to have adopted in-state rival Ohio State’s philosophy by scheduling an absolute cake schedule year after year. The easy schedule vaults the Bearcats above their AAC competition but does not tell the story as to the parity in this conference. There is little to separate Cincinnati from Houston, UCF, and East Carolina as each team has either sound defensive player or big time offensive threats. But the true wild card of this Bearcat team is Notre Dame transfer Gunner Kiel who was once considered one of the best quarterback prospects in the past ten years. If Kiel is able to live up to hype that was created at Notre Dame, the Bearcats could be a wild-card in College Football. Cincinnati will not make the playoff, but could re-create the AAC magic that USF created a year ago with Blake Bortles.

2. Houston

            While the Bearcats will be praised as the pre-season champions of the AAC, Houston has the same amount of talent, maybe more, but will probably come up short this season once again. Houston contended for the title last year before losing three straight to UCF, Louisville, and Cincinnati. This year, despite the fact they will not have to play Louisville, the Cougars will have to travel to SMU, and Cincinnati on the last week of the season. Quarterback John O’Korn and wide receiver Deontay Greenberry is by far the best QB-WR combo in the conference, and Houston kept their opponents to under 17 ppg just a season ago. The talent, and weapons are there for Houston, but looks like Houston will come up short again.

3. UCF

            Despite the loss of Blake Bortles, the first quarterback taken in last year’s NFL draft, UCF has another outstanding team that can compete for the AAC title. While they may not have an NFL caliber quarterback slinging the pig-skin around anymore, the Knights can rely on their defense this season to win them some games. Last year UCF gave up an average of 21 ppg, which was good enough for 4^th in the conference, but many predict UCF should improve upon that and lead the conference in that category. If they are able to do so sophomores, quarterback Justin Holman and William Stanback could amount enough of an offensive production to be back in the AAC title race. However trips to Houston, and East Carolina (on a short week) could prove to be difficult.

4. East Carolina

            While the rest of the contenders can harp on their defensive improvements, East Carolina, one of the new members of the AAC, will rely solely on their high powered offense to get the job done.  Quarterback Shane Carden looks to take another giant step forward in his progression, as last year Carden threw for over 4,000 yards and 33 touchdowns. Last year ECU won 10 games for the first time since 1991 in the Conference USA, but the competition may prove to be tougher in the AAC. Many experts have ECU ranked somewhere in the middle of the conference, however, the incumbent AAC schools may have a hard time preparing for this high octane offense. While the remaining schools in the AAC have “good” defenses, let’s be real, none of them are sporting a unit as talented as Alabama, Florida State, or any other powers. ECU could outscore a majority of their opponents this year. A road game in Cincinnati on November 13^th will be their toughest test of their conference schedule, but upsets happen on Thursday night games…look for this one.

5. SMU

            June Jones is trying to re-create the magic he was able to create at Hawaii in Dallas with the South Methodist Mustangs and while he has not had that signature season yet, SMU continues to compete. A year ago however, SMU finished under .500 for the first time in Jones’s tenure, and this season SMU has only 12 returning starters. They lose all AAC quarterback Garrett Gilbert, and sophomore Neal Burcham takes over who is not as talented as his predecessor and that signature June Jones’ offense looks to take a step back this year. But SMU does have excellent weapons in receivers Der’rikk Thompson and Darius Joseph. If Burcham can provide any kind of consistency and utilize those weapons SMU should finish in the middle of the pack once again.

6. Memphis

            Memphis’s second year in the AAC could prove to be a good one despite the fact they lost nine games a year ago. The Tigers have 17 starters back, so an improvement is inevitable to say the least. Threeimportant starters that return are defensive lineman Martin Ifedi who had 11.5 sacks a year ago and Terry Redden and Ricky Hunter who solidify the best d-line in the conference. The offense still needs to improve rapidly and significantly before Memphis can think about contending, but the schedule is favorable for Memphis to think about making a bowl game.

7. Tulsa

            Much like Memphis, Tulsa can rely on their 15 returning starters to turnaround their abysmal year in 2013 when they only won 3 games. The Golden Hurricane (phenomenal mascot name but are there hurricanes in Oklahoma? And why do the Redskins have such a hard time coming up with another cool mascot name? Steal this one!) Tulsa should improve but a bowl game will probably be a reach.

8. Temple

            Temple has descended from their 9-win season in 2011 and hopefully they have reached their bottom a year ago. However they play all the contenders in the AAC when they travel to Houston and UCF in back to back weeks and host East Carolina and Cincinnati towards the end of the season. I have to believe that that things cannot get much worse for the Owls (not as cool as the Golden Hurricane) but it could with only 13 returning starters.

9. Connecticut

            It’s a new regime in Storrs, Connecticut, but the Huskies will have a tough time adjusting and winning at the same time. Its still a basketball school, and if they have any future hopes of joining the ACC (if that ship hasn’t sailed already) Uconn needs to win and win now. But they are not  going to win much now.

10. USF

            USF is really bad.

11. Tulane

            Tulane is much worse.

Games To Watch:

1. Cincinnati vs. Houston

            This is the last game of the season and this December 6^th matchup could prove to decide the winner of the conference. While the Bearcats have paved the way to the conference title, Houston has a much harder road, and if the Cougars have a chance to win the conference on the last week expect an excellent matchup.

2. Cincinnati vs. East Carolina

            But in order for that matchup to happen I believe East Carolina has to upset Cincinnati in Cincinnati on that Thursday night matchup. It should be an entertaining affair with both offenses trying to outscore one another. Whoever has the ball last could win this game.

3. East Carolina vs. USF

            The best offense in the conference vs. the best defense in the conference will be on display on the last week of the season on yet another Thursday night. Both of these teams could find their way in the title race and if they do this game will have large impacts.